民主党の比例区勝ち過ぎを修正することで、政権交代が確実になる
2007参院選のデータを使って、衆院選比例区で民主党の票を他野党に移譲した場合、野党全体の比例区議席数がどのように変化するかをシミュレーションしました。（2007参院選比例区での民主党の得票率は39.5%で、2009東京都議会議員選挙での民主党の得票率は40.8%。）
民主党の比例区票を80%他野党に移譲すると、野党全体の比例区議席数は変化せずに、民主党と他野党全体のそれぞれで、比例区得票率と全国議席獲得率が一致するようになります。
投票パターンがそのようにシフトすることで、民主党以外の支持者が小選挙区で民主党候補に投票するモチベーションが高まり、政権交代がより確実になるでしょう。民主党単独ではない、野党連合政権が誕生することで、政策面で民意を反映できるメリットも、当然あります。
【目次】
1. 民主党の比例区票を他野党に移譲すると、野党全体の比例区議席が増えることがある
2. 小数野党の比例区票を少々民主党に移譲しても、野党全体の比例区議席は数議席しか増加しない
3. 民主党の比例区票を他野党に移譲しても、野党全体の比例区議席は数議席しか減少しない
4. 2007参院選小選挙区――民主党の17勝6敗だが、民主党の実力は7勝16敗以下だった
5. 完全比例代表制を基準にすると、民主党は約70議席を超過獲得し、他野党は約70議席を獲り損ねる
6. 民主党の比例区票を80%他野党に移譲すると、民主党と他野党全体で比例区得票率と全国議席獲得率が一致する
7. 民主党支持者が比例区で努めて小数野党に投票することで、政権交代が確実になる
【関連投稿】
http://kaze.fm/wordpress/?p=274
http://kaze.fm/wordpress/?p=268
http://kaze.fm/wordpress/?p=229
http://kaze.fm/wordpress/?p=140
| 自 民 |
民 主 |
公 明 |
共 産 |
社 民 |
国 新 |
日 本 |
新 風 |
９ 条 |
共 生 |
女 性 |
計 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 定 数 一 八 〇 |
現 行 ブ ロ ッ ク 式 |
北海道 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| 東北 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | ||
| 北関東 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | ||
| 南関東 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | ||
| 東京 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | ||
| 北陸信越 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | ||
| 東海 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | ||
| 近畿 | 7 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | ||
| 中国 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | ||
| 四国 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | ||
| 九州 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | ||
| 計 | 55 | 85 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 180 | ||
| 議席獲得率 | 30.6 | 47.2 | 13.9 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | ||
| 得票率 | 28.1 | 39.5 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.1 | - | ||
| 得票率x定数 | 50.5 | 71.1 | 23.7 | 13.5 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 2.1 | - | ||
| 全国一括式 | 52 | 73 | 24 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 180 | ||
| No | 野党議席の 増減数 |
野党間の票移譲パターン | 議席の増減が起こる比例ブロック |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9増 | 民主・共産・社民・国新・日本の票を統合 | 東北・北関東・南関東・東京・北陸信越・東海・近畿・中国・九州 |
| 2 | 2増 | 民主・共産・社民の票を統合 | 南関東・中国 |
| 3 | 2増 | 民主・国新・日本の票を統合 | 北関東・南関東 |
| 4 | 1増 | 民主から共産・社民へ50%ずつ移譲（民主党票ゼロ） | 南関東 |
| 5 | 1増 | 民主・共産の票を統合 | 南関東 |
| 6 | 1増 | 民主・国新の票を統合 | 南関東 |
| 7 | 1増 | 民主・日本の票を統合 | 南関東 |
| 8 | 0増0減 | 民主・社民の票を統合 | − |
| 9 | 1増1減 | 民主から共産・社民・国新・日本へ20%ずつ移譲（民主党票80%減） | 増：南関東；減：北関東 |
| 10 | 1減 | 民主から共産・社民へ25%ずつ移譲（民主党票半減） | 北関東 |
| 11 | 1減 | 民主から共産・社民・国新・日本へ25%ずつ移譲（民主党票ゼロ） | 北関東 |
| 12 | 1増3減 | 民主から国新・日本へ25%ずつ移譲（民主党票半減） | 増：南関東；減：北海道・北関東・中国 |
| 13 | 1増4減 | 民主から共産・社民・国新・日本へ12.5%ずつ移譲（民主党票半減） | 増：南関東；減：北海道・北関東・四国・九州 |
1. 民主党の比例区票を他野党に移譲すると、野党全体の比例区議席が増えることがある
比例区では、民主党による票の取り過ぎ現象が発生することがあります。一種の死票です。
表2を見てください。これは、2007参院選のデータ（表1）を（次期）衆院選に当てはめ、民主党の比例区票を他野党に移譲した場合、野党全体の比例区議席数がどのように変化するかを示したシミュレーションです。
例えば南関東ブロック。民主党から16万票弱を共産・国民新党・新党日本のいずれかに移譲することで、民主党の議席数を変化させずに、野党は自民から1議席を奪うことができます。No5〜7に対応します。
2. 小数野党の比例区票を少々民主党に移譲しても、野党全体の比例区議席は数議席しか増加しない
共産・社民には常日頃、民主党に票を譲るべきだ、とする圧力がかけられています。比例区で共産・社民の票を民主党に統合したらどうなるでしょうか（No2）。野党の比例区議席は2議席増えるだけに過ぎません。
国民新党と新党日本に対してはそうした声をほとんど聞きませんが、これら2党の比例区票を民主党に統合した場合も計算してみましょう（No 3）。やはり、野党の比例区議席は2議席増えるだけです。
野党の比例区議席数を最大にする方法は、明らかに、民主党など1つの政党に票を集中させることです（No1）。さすがにこのような要求をする野党支持者は小数派でしょうが、最大で9議席、野党全体の比例区議席が増加します。
3. 民主党の比例区票を他野党に移譲しても、野党全体の比例区議席は数議席しか減少しない
では、比例区で野党票を民主党に統合する代わりに、民主党の比例区票を他野党に移譲したら、野党全体の比例区議席はどう変化するでしょうか（No9〜13）。民主党の比例区票を他野党に移譲しても、野党全体の比例区議席は、最大でも3議席程度しか減少しません。
以上から、政策を犠牲にして野党の議席数を稼ぐために、比例区で民主党に票を集中させるメリットはないことが確認できます。
4. 2007参院選小選挙区――民主党の17勝6敗だが、民主党の実力は7勝16敗以下だった
「2007参院選――結果分析」をご覧ください。29ある小選挙区で、自民党と民主党が直接対決した選挙区は23あります。民主党が17勝6敗と、11選挙区で勝ち越しています。ところが、そのうち10選挙区で、民主党の比例区票は自民党の小選挙区票を下回っていました。
http://kaze.fm/wordpress/?p=140
各党の比例区獲得票は、党の実力を最もよく示すデータなので、基礎票と呼ぶことができます。上記の10小選挙区で、民主党の基礎票は自民党の小選挙区票を下回っていたにもかかわらず、民主党は自民党に勝利することができました。
このことは、この10小選挙区で、民主党以外の支持者から民主党候補に票が流れたことを示しています。民主党単独の実力で勝負すれば、7勝16敗以下だったのです。
2007参院選では小選挙区に限らず、「民主党の比例区票が自公（および与党系無所属）の選挙区票を下回っていた」選挙区は、47選挙区中、24もありました。「民主党の比例区票が自公の選挙区票をわずか数万票しか上回っていなかった」8選挙区と合わせると、32選挙区にも上ります。
5. 完全比例代表制を基準にすると、民主党は約70議席を超過獲得し、他野党は約70議席を獲り損ねる
2007参院選の比例区で民主党の得票率は39.5%でした（表1）。2009東京都議会議員選挙での民主党の得票率は40.8%だから、2007年からほとんど変わっていません。次期衆院選でも2007参院選と同じ比例区得票率を仮定しましょう。
衆院選は、比例区の定数が180、小選挙区の定数（選挙区数）が300で、総定数は480。もしも完全比例代表制ならば、民主党の議席数は、480×39.5%≒190議席となるでしょう。現行ブロック式の比例区では、表1に示すとおり、85議席を獲得できる見込みです。
では、民主党は次期衆院選の小選挙区でどのくらい議席を獲得できるでしょうか。2007参院選の29ある小選挙区で、民主党は17勝しています。議席獲得率は58.6%です。これを衆院選の小選挙区定数300に掛ければ、約175議席と見積もることができます。
結局、次期衆院選で民主党は比例区で85議席、小選挙区で175議席、合計で過半数の260議席を獲得できると推測されます。完全比例代表制の場合より、70議席も超過しています。
同様に、共産・社民・国民新党・新党日本の獲得議席数を推測してみます。これら4党の2007参院選比例区における得票率は、全体で17.0%です。この得票率を仮定すると、完全比例代表制であれば、4党全体で480×17.0%≒82議席を獲得できるはずです。
4党は、2007参院選の小選挙区でわずか1議席しか獲得できませんでした。次期衆院選の小選挙区でも近似的にゼロと見なせます。現行ブロック式の比例区では、表1に示したように、4党全体でも15議席程度しか獲得できないと推測されます。したがって小数4野党の場合、民主党とは逆に、70議席近くを取り損ねる事態が予想されます。この不公正を“修正”できないでしょうか。
6. 民主党の比例区票を80%他野党に移譲すると、民主党と他野党全体で比例区得票率と全国議席獲得率が一致する
70議席といえば、民主党が比例区で獲得を見込める85議席の約80%に当たります。そこで、民主党の比例区獲得票の80％を共産・社民・国民新党・新党日本の各党に均等に移譲してみましょう（表2 No9）。すると見事に、民主党の比例区獲得議席から70議席を小数4野党に移譲することができます。野党全体の比例区獲得議席数に変化はありません。
その結果、民主党と小数4野党全体のそれぞれで、比例区得票率と全国議席獲得率がほぼ一致するようになります。つまり、比例代表制に近い結果が実現するのです。
7. 民主党支持者が比例区で努めて小数野党に投票することで、政権交代が確実になる
民主党は、小選挙区で他野党支持者の票に大きく依存することで、得票率を超える議席獲得率を実現しています。
政権交代の決め手は、野党が共倒れせず、小選挙区を制することです。民主党支持でない有権者が民主党候補に票を投じるのは、そのためです。
小選挙区制ではこのように、民主党以外の支持者が一方的に、不公正かつ合理的な投票行動を強制されています。したがって民主党支持者には、この事情を考慮して、公正な投票行動が期待されます。比例区では努めて小数野党に投票することが求められるのです。
こうして不公正が修正されることで、民主党以外の支持者が小選挙区で民主党候補に投票するモチベーションが高まり、政権交代がより確実になるでしょう。選挙区すみ分け投票は、政権交代を重視する民主党支持者にとっても合理的な投票パターンです。
http://kaze.fm/wordpress/?p=268
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民主党が衆議院の定数を80減らす事を選挙の公約にした。比例区の定数削減は少数政党を国会から締め出すことになり民主主義をの基礎を崩すものである。自民党も削減の数を民主党と (more…)
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8月 26th, 2009 at 8:00:27
雇用問題を重視する人は、情勢によっては社民 (または共産) に投票すべき
衆院選での投票先調査で、特に社民党が伸び悩んでいるようです。
自民・公明に愛想をつかした人が民主に流れるのは、結構なことです。
しかし、元々社民 (または共産) 支持の人が民主に流れるのは、場合によっては良いことではありません。
雇用問題を重視する人は、投票時に最新の情勢を判断し、比例区では
(1) 自民・公明に対し民主が確実に優勢でない場合は民主に投票し
(2) 自民・公明に対し民主が確実に優勢である場合は社民 (または共産) に投票した方がよいでしょう。
現実問題として、民主党の中には保守的な議員も多くいます。
連立を組む社民党議員が減少し、民主党が単独過半数を超えると、
民主党が保守化する懸念があります。
この点は要注意です。たとえば、
民主・社民・共産各党の本部・各都道府県支部・各衆議員候補・各参議員に対し、
技術者等の非正規雇用禁止を希望するメールを送ったところ、
社民党の都道府県支部の一つからは、次のような回答がありました。
> メール有り難うございました。
> 民主党のマニフェスト内容で「原則として製造現場・・・・派遣を禁止」についても、押し上げるのに大変でした。
> 民間大企業の労働組合は、多くは旧同盟系が主流なので、「製造現場への派遣の禁止」には、かなりの抵抗がありました。
> 社民党の踏ん張り抜きには出来なかった事項ですが、指摘された「技術者等の非正規雇用禁止」はかなりの協議が必要かと思います。
> 派遣労働そのものを禁止する状況に引き戻すには、専門業務以外はしっかりと派遣を禁止することをガードすることが、まず重要と思います。
> 政権交代は確実です。社民党は、雇用、平和で民主党のブレを引き戻し、闘いながら政権内でガンバルことが役割です。
> 今後とも、意見をメールして下さい。
これによれば、社民党の発言力が弱くなると、非正規雇用対策が後退する恐れがあると考えられます。
したがって、雇用問題を重視する人は、情勢によっては社民 (または共産) に投票すべきでしょう。
賢い有権者なら、戦略的に投票しましょう。
この件は特に強調していただきたいと思います。
以上、自民・公明に対し民主が圧倒的に優勢である場合に考慮すべき話です。
8月 31st, 2009 at 15:25:16
民主党の細野豪志は山本モナと五反田のラブホテルで過ごした。
民主党の横峯良郎には半同棲状態の東京妻がいた。
民主党代表の鳩山由紀夫は選挙区の室蘭市にあるクラブママに愛人がいたことが発覚している。
残念ながら、９月中旬には下半身友愛首相が誕生する。
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Additionally, if you’re a man with low testosterone levels, Anavar could be a good option.
In many countries, Anavar is a controlled substance as a result of its potential
for abuse. This implies that possession, distribution, or use of Anavar with no legitimate prescription can lead to legal penalties.
This article aims to make clear the potential side effects of Anavar in females.
Most of those unwanted effects are manageable and could be minimized by adhering to correct cycle
lengths, taking breaks between cycles, and using the really helpful dosage.
It’s all the time a good suggestion to seek the advice of with a healthcare professional earlier
than starting any new supplement, significantly one
which affects hormone levels. After concluding a cycle with Anavar by Hi-Tech Prescribed Drugs, selecting
the right Post-Cycle Remedy (PCT) is important to make sure hormonal balance, support restoration, and preserve muscle
gains. Here’s a breakdown of the professionals and cons of
Arimiplex®, Arimistane, Cannibal Alpha PCT®, and SIGMA in your PCT phase.
You can stack Anvarol with other CrazyBulk dietary supplements that can help you attain your
fitness targets even faster. For instance, if you’re looking to
add muscle mass, you possibly can stack CrazyBulk’s bulking supplements, such as D-Bal, Testo-Max,
and Trenorol. In phrases of dosages, there are individuals suggesting that males should use
no much less than 50 mg a day so as to get
effectiveness.
References:
Anabolic growth, thecareerguard.com,
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